Zela Peak

PlayoffComputer

APP INFO

The PlayoffComputer App (the “App”) takes a sport-league’s standings and schedule data and analyzes its playoff race, providing valuable information to team owners regarding their playoff chances as well as giving Commissioners a treasure trove of material to include in weekly recaps and newsletters.

The App contains no ads and does not collect any data outside of device use for performance monitoring and analytics.

Access Levels / Features

There are two access levels, Basic and Premium. The App at initial installation includes the Basic Level. The Premium Level is available on an annual subscription basis for the price of a beer. It is recommended to insure that the data from your particular league(s) can be satisfactorily transferred and the Basic Level calculations can be accomplished before upgrading to the Premium Level as there may be a complex league set-up that is not compatible (please let us know if that occurs).

Features in ALL Levels

  • Data transfer from popular fantasy sports hosting sites such as ESPN, Yahoo, MyFantasy, Sleeper, Fleaflicker, NFL Fantasy, and Fantasy Premier League. Additionally, data transfer from a Google Sheets spreadsheet template available HERE for other leagues. This spreadsheet takes a little bit of time to initially set-up but only a few minutes to update each week/round.
  • For data transferred from some of the fantasy sports hosting sites, playoff race details such as number of playoff teams, tiebreakers, when the playoffs start, etc. are automatically transferred. Otherwise some details may need to be manually input.
  • Accepts leagues with multiple-conferences (My Fantasy, Sheets) and/or multiple-divisions.
  • Customizable set-up of tiebreakers, number of wildcard spots, and points-related details.
  • Can include the following tiebreakers into calculations: Head-To-Head (several options that should cover varying hosting site rules), Division Record, Conference Record, Points, Points-Against-High (schedule toughness), All-Play, and Points/Goals Difference.
  • Wildcard calculations can be made by “Standard” or “Best-in-Division” (e.g. My Fantasy) methods.
  • Customizable sorting of analysis results display.

Features in BASIC Level

  • Approximate odds for each team to win their division (if applicable) and/or to make the playoffs.

Features in PREMIUM Level

  • Clinched / Eliminated status info for each team that has clinched or been eliminated from a division and/or playoff spot.
  • Increased-accuracy odds for each team to win their division (if applicable) and/or to make the playoffs.
  • Minimum number of wins each team needs to achieve to have any chance to make the playoffs.
  • Guaranteed number of wins each team would be guaranteed to make the playoffs if it were achieved.
  • Whether a team “Must win out” to have any chance to make the playoffs.
  • Whether or not a team “Controls their own destiny”.
  • PDF report with the famous “paths-to-clinch”, which details what scenarios need to happen in the upcoming games for teams to clinch a division and/or playoff spot (i.e. “Bananas clinch a spot with a win AND a Dragons loss”).

League Requirements

In order to function as intended, a league must

  • Play head-to-head games, where each game either results in a win, loss, or tie for the teams, or for “points-based” leagues (e.g. soccer) each game results in “league-points” as a result of a win, loss, or tie. At the moment, leagues that utilize median scoring or similar will not have their playoff race properly analyzed (if you believe anything you read on the internet today, let it be that incorporating median scoring into this type of calculating in a proper fashion is more than difficult than achieving world peace, see below for more info).
  • Determine all playoff spots firstly by either overall winning percentage or by “league points” (e.g. soccer). For leagues that award an additional spot to the leftover highest-scoring team, the App can only calculate the wildcard spots available by record or “league points”. FWIW this shouldn’t diminish the enjoyment of the App as generally speaking this additional spot is so in flux in most leagues that it doesn’t matter if it is not included in the calculations.
  • Leagues that play double-header schedules are accommodated but note that depending on league size and various other factors for the situation at the time, the “paths-to-clinch” report may become fairly complicated and almost indecipherable and the mathematical accuracy of some calculations may be impaired.
  • Have all teams play the same number of games.
  • Leagues the play uneven schedules (e.g. Premier League) are accommodated, as long as each team plays the same number of games for the season, with the same possible impacts as described above depending on the specific circumstances.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

See complete Terms of Use HERE

Briefly, there is a reason that this type of App exists nowhere else. The formulas, methods, and processes used are both unorthodox and complicated in order to achieve the desired results. The App requires a tremendous amount of computing resources from a user’s device for sometimes an extended amount of time. It is completely the user’s responsibility and their discretion and determination as to whether to subject their device to this type of use. Additionally, for maximum ease of use the App requires access to league data through a fantasy sports hosting site’s API. There is no implied warranty, statement, or promise that access to any particular fantasy hosting site will continue for any amount of time. The relevant fantasy hosting sites completely control their APIs and they may make modifications or change access policies at any time that would cause the App’s ability to gather data from them to cease either temporarily or, if a remedy is not possible, permanently. As such, it is completely at the user’s risk to use this App with a particular fantasy sports hosting site.

Note that with the almost infinite amount of league settings and options ranging from the numerous hosting sites the App can get data from, to different sports, to league size, to division and even conference options, to tiebreakers, all of which many alter the formatting of the data as accessed through the hosting sites, it is a virtual certainty that some particular league set-up hasn’t been tested yet and will crash the App either when attempting to import data or when performing calculations. If that happens, kindly report via email (Apps(@at)zelapeak.com) for good karma to your fantasy teams and it will be investigated as soon as possible.

APP INSTRUCTIONS

HOME PAGE

From the Home Page, the following options are available:

  • Import: Select to import league data from the various sources available.
  • Update Access Level: Use this after upgrading, if desired, to the Premium Level for the App to recognize the change in Access Level.
  • Get Premium Access: This opens up a window to purchase the Premium Level annual subscription. It is recommended that before doing so to test the data import and basic calculations with your league(s) to make sure they are accomplished satisfactorily.

IMPORT PAGE

To import data from a league, follow these steps. Note that some steps only apply to specific data sources:

  • Select Import Source: Choose between the available fantasy sports hosting sites, the companion Google Sheets template, or even the Test league.
  • Choose Sport (ESPN, Fleaflicker): Select the relevant sport for the league.
  • MFL URL Prefix (MyFantasy only): Input the two-digit number that follows “www” when the league is displayed on the web.
  • League ID: Input the League ID. For most hosting sites this is a 4-10 digit number. For some it is more complex (and longer). For Google Sheets data import, see below for full details.
  • To help with ease-of-use, once a League ID is input, it can be saved as either “#1” or “#2” and then inserted from memory as needed in the future.
  • Select League Year (ESPN, MyFantasy, Fleaflicker): Select the league year. For leagues that traverse two calendar years this is the year in which the season began.
  • Select alternative import method (ESPN only): At time of writing, ESPN has been changing API access methods and it is unsure which method will be permanent. Choose “Y” if the league data is not transferred successfully.
  • Enter Current Week (MyFantasy, Sleeper, NFL Fantasy, FPL): Input the current upcoming (un-played) week of the season.
  • Enter Last Week of Season (MyFantasy only): Enter the number of weeks in the regular season (e.g. usually 13-15 for ff).
  • Display Team Name or Abbreviation (ESPN, MyFantasy): Choose whether the display results and paths-to-clinch reports (if applicable) should use team names or abbreviations. The reports are much cleaner with abbreviations but only if they are easily identifiable (e.g. leagues that use NFL names/abbreviations).
  • Click on the Import League button.
  • The league data will be imported into the App. IMPORTANT: Depending on hosting site and options chosen for the particular league within the hosting site, tiebreakers that are used by the league to sort teams may or may not be automatically included in the data. Please doublecheck the tiebreakers shown are accurate for the league and change them if they are not (see next section). Additionally, again depending on hosting site, the number of wildcard spots shown for calculations may or may not be transferred. If they are not accurate see the Analysis Options section to change.

LEAGUE TABLE (AFTER IMPORT, BEFORE ANALYSIS)

The League table will show the imported league with relevant standings details. Some of the details shown in the standings table will vary depending on which tiebreakers are used in the calculations.

Below the standings table several buttons are shown.

  • Show Remaining Games: Click to see the remaining games in the league’s schedule. A second option Show Relevant Games will then appear. After calculations have been made on the league, this option will show only games that were relevant for the calculations. For example, if the remaining schedule includes a game between two teams that both can be easily identifiable as being eliminated (through simple “magic number” methods), that game is not relevant to the playoff chances of the other teams and will be excluded from the calculations. This is done to reduce the number of games the App has to process in its analysis, which then results in more accurate results with a large number of remaining games.
  • Show/Load/Save Tiebreakers: Click to see the tiebreakers that will be used in calculations. As mentioned above, for some hosting sites the tiebreakers listed will be transferred automatically. For others the default tiebreakers for that hosting site may be shown that may not be what is actually being used by the league. If tiebreakers had to be set manually (see below), there are options to save tiebreakers for future use. See Set Tiebreakers Manually below for full details.
  • Set Tiebreakers Manually: If the tiebreakers as shown in the above step do not match the actual league rules, click this button to manually select the appropriate tiebreakers as follows.
    • If the league is multi-division, select the division tiebreakers first in order of priority. See the TIEBREAKER section below for full descriptions. Once a tiebreaker is selected, it will appear in the “selected” section in order. If a mistake is made simply click “Clear” and start over. Once division tiebreakers have been selected, click “Done”. If the division tiebreakers did not need to be changed from those originally displayed, click “Skip”. Note that a tiebreaker “FORCE” will always be added to the division tiebreaker list. This is to accurately make calculations for each remaining scenario when there is a chance that a winner of a “non-firm” tiebreaker (e.g. points) cannot be determined before the end of the season.
    • Select the wildcard tiebreakers in order of priority. See the TIEBREAKER section below for full descriptions. For leagues that award wildcard spots using an NFL-style “best-in-division” method (e.g. MyFantasy), firstly choose the “BID…” tiebreakers that determine which team among those tied in a division will be the “best-in-division”, then select the tiebreakers that are used to determine the actual wildcard spot among those “best-in-division” teams. For example, if a league sorts division standings for teams that are tied by head-to-head and division record, and sorts wildcard teams by head-to-head and points (no division record), then the proper order would be “BIDH2H…”, “BIDDIVRECORD”, “H2H…”, “POINTS”. Once a tiebreaker is selected, it will appear in the “selected” section in order. If a mistake is made simply click “Clear” and start over. Once wildcard tiebreakers have been selected, click “Done”. If the wildcard tiebreakers did not need to be changed from those originally displayed, click “Skip”.
    • To help with ease-of-use for a league that needs to have tiebreakers manually set, once that process has been complete, the division and/or wildcard tiebreaker order can be saved to be loaded from memory in future use.

ANALYSIS OPTIONS

The following options are available that will then be used in calculations:

  • Points League? Select Yes if the league standings are sorted by “league-points” (e.g. hockey or soccer type rules). Additional options will appear to input the amount of “league-points” awarded per win and tie.
  • Consider tie games? If the possibility of a tie-game should be considered in the calculations, select Yes. Note that because this would equate to 3 possibilities for each game to work through, rather than 2, and the formula for the number of possible remaining scenarios is (possible outcomes of each game) ^ (number of remaining games), the difference in the number of possible remaining scenarios that the App would have to work through is vastly increased when tie games have to be considered. For example, given 8 remaining games, without ties being considered there are 256 remaining scenarios, with ties being considered as a possibility there are 6,561 remaining scenarios. Thus the limit to the number of games remaining before the App has to include randomization methods is reduced when this option is selected. There are also two more adverse affects when this option is selected. First, the odds shown for relevant teams to make the playoffs will be skewered as the option of a tie for any particular game is considered as the same equal probability as of either team winning. Second, the “paths-to-clinch” reports (Premium Level) will be basically unreadable for something that usually has a low probability of occurrence. It is suggested to not select this option for the majority of fantasy leagues where a tie game is only a remote possibility, and even if tie games are a distinct possibility to only select this option for the last week of the season.
  • Div. winners automatically in playoffs (multi-division leagues only). Usually Yes for multi-division leagues. If division winners are not automatically granted a playoff berth, select No and the league for this App’s purpose will be considered as a non-division league. If this is the case, insure the number of wildcard spots to be used in calculations (see below) accurately reflect the total number of playoff spots.
  • Wildcard spots: For some hosting sites, this number will be automatically transferred from the league data. If not, select the appropriate number of wildcard spots. For non-division leagues this is the total number of playoff spots. For most multi-division leagues, this is the number of wildcard spots only. For example, in a two-division league with a playoff field of 6 teams and the division winners automatically getting a playoff spot, this number would be 4 (total playoff spots – divisions).
  • Points(or Goals) Buffer: For leagues that utilize points-based tiebreakers (the most common tiebreaker), since points is a “non-firm” tiebreaker that does not directly correlate to to winning and losing (e.g. Team A could beat Team B 60-50 while Team C could beat Team D 120-100, as such Team D despite losing their game actually gained points on Team A, and vice versa), there is no perfect method for the App to calculate which teams would win a points tiebreaker against any others before the season is over. The best possible method for the App’s purposes is to assume that a team with a large “points-lead” over another would be safe from being overtaken by that second team. As such, use the Points Buffer to select a reasonable number of points that any one team behind another team would not be able to overcome before the season ends. A rough formula to determine a “reasonable number” would be is (number of weeks remaining) X (difference between a high and low weekly score). For example, in a “normal” ff league where a good score is 150 and a bad score is 75, with three weeks remaining a “reasonable number” would be 225 (3 weeks X 75). This can be adjusted as one sees fit. A higher number will be more technically accurate as far as not “assuming” that any one team is not going to miracle a points comeback over another but it also results in the analysis results showing more chances that teams will end up in a tie for a spot that cannot be determined by the App at the current time.
  • Manual paths number: (Premium Level) If the league doesn’t play a set one game per team per week/round schedule (e.g. doubleheaders, byes), or “paths-to-clinch” for the next X amount of games are desired, choose the number of upcoming games to calculate “paths” for. Note that depending on league size and complexity of the scenarios presented, this can greatly increase the length of time to process calculations and make the “paths” listings very long and very complicated to decipher. It is also probable, depending on length of team names and the complexity of the scenarios, that the “paths” display will be limited in scope (see below). Note there is an upper limit to this setting and it is impossible to test this option with every complicated scenario that might be incurred, it is very likely other adverse effects may be encountered.
  • Focus on Team (Premium Level): When there are more than 20 remaining “relevant” games, the App has to use some randomization methods to deliver results in a timely manner. When this is the case, the “paths” in particular may not be completely accurate. To verify “paths” for a particular team (to the extent possible), re-run calculations with the desired team selected, and Depth of Analysis (see below) set to maximum levels. This will provide the most accurate as possible “paths” for that team. Note, the odds shown for all teams and “paths” for other teams will be inaccurate when this option is used.
  • Depth of Analysis (Premium Level): If there are many remaining games left in the league’s schedule, the App cannot possibly work through all of the possible scenarios and will use some randomization methods to produce results in a reasonable amount of time. Since every possible scenario cannot be “played-out” in these circumstances, the accuracy of the results can diminish slightly. This option lets the user control the amount of time the App will be given to analyze the league’s playoff race in an effort to improve the accuracy of the Clinched/Eliminated determinations as well as the “paths-to-clinch” report. For a “typical” ff league the following is suggested. In the early weeks of the season when there is no possibility that any one team has clinched or been eliminated from a playoff spot, using “1” will deliver accurate odds. Midway through the season this setting will be at user’s discretion, if it appears any team is nearing the point of clinching a playoff spot “10” will provide the maximum analysis to check their current situation. As the season winds down the App is able to work through every possible scenario and this setting is not relevant. For larger leagues with obviously more games this setting may be in use longer throughout the season. The number very roughly corresponds to the number of minutes the App will take to process its analysis.

ANALYZE

Once the league data has been imported, the tiebreakers to be used are correct, and the other options are set as desired, click on the Analyze button. A progress bar will be displayed to indicate the calculations are ongoing. Time necessary to complete analysis is dependent on many, many factors, such as the league size, number of remaining games, amount and type of tiebreakers used, how many teams are in the playoff race, number of divisions, point in the season, how complex the playoff race is shaping up to be, and the number of teams that have a chance at clinching a spot in the upcoming week/round.

LEAGUE TABLE (AFTER ANALYSIS) – BASIC LEVEL

Approximate odds for each team to win their division (if applicable) and to get a playoff spot will be shown. The playoff odds may (depending on tiebreakers used) be split into two parts: “C” indicates the odds of a team securing a spot; “T” indicates the odds of a team ending up in a tie for a spot whose winner cannot be determined at the current time (usually due to points tiebreaker between two or more teams whose point totals are within the “points buffer” as described above).

The table display can be sorted by team ID, divisions (if applicable), or by win-loss record if desired by clicking on the appropriate column header.

LEAGUE TABLE (AFTER ANALYSIS) – PREMIUM LEVEL

For teams that the App determines have clinched or been eliminated from their division race (if applicable) and/or playoff contention, a “Clinched” or “Eliminated” status will be displayed as relevant *. For the rest of the teams, approximate odds for each each team to win their division (if applicable) and to get a playoff spot will be shown. The playoff odds may (depending on tiebreakers used) be split into two parts: “C” indicates the odds of a team securing a spot; “T” indicates the odds of a team ending up in a tie for a spot whose winner cannot be determined at the current time (usually due to points tiebreaker between two or more teams whose point totals are within the “points buffer” as described above).

Additional details will be shown for each team, as applicable *, as follows:

  • The minimum number of wins needed to have any chance at a playoff spot.
  • The number of wins, if achieved, that would guarantee a playoff spot regardless of what else happens.
  • Whether a team must win out to have any chance at a playoff spot.
  • Whether a team controls their own destiny (e.g. could not be denied a playoff spot if they were to win out).

* The accuracy of these determinations and numbers, if shown, is dependent on the number of remaining games. If there are many remaining games left in the schedule these numbers and determinations will likely be realistically accurate but may not be mathematically accurate.

The table display can be sorted by team ID, divisions (if applicable), or by win-loss record if desired by clicking on the appropriate column header.

An additional option button will be displayed, Create PDF. If clicked, a PDF report will be created which includes the famous “paths-to-clinch” listings for teams, as applicable, detailing what scenarios in the upcoming week/round(s) would be required for a team to clinch either a division or playoff spot. As with some of the other results, as mentioned above, the “paths-to-clinch” may not be completely mathematically accurate if there are many remaining games and/or the Depth of Analysis setting was not set to maximum. The location of the PDF report may vary depending on device and storage settings. The default location is Internal storage -> Documents -> playoff_computer. Note a new file is created each time, titled Analysis_Report(Date). Note that if multiple reports are generated the document file may need to be closed and re-opened for the the new file to be displayed.

TIEBREAKERS

The following describes the tiebreakers available for calculations:

  • H2HALL: Head-to-head that is applied regardless of whether all teams tied in a given scenario will have played each other or evenly.
  • H2HEVEN: Head-to-head that is applied only if the teams involved will have played each other evenly.
  • H2HTWO: Head-to-head that is applied only if two teams are tied in a given scenario.
  • CONFRECORD: Conference record.
  • DIVRECORD: Division record.
  • ALLPLAY: All-play wins. As All-play is based on points scored, it is considered a “non-firm” tiebreaker for calculations.
  • POINTS: Points-for. Considered a “non-firm” tiebreaker for calculations.
  • POINTSAGHIGH: Points-against, higher is better (substitutes as a strength of schedule measurement for some hosting sites). Considered a “non-firm” tiebreaker for calculations.
  • PTSDIFF: Difference between “points-for” and “points-against” (or goals).
  • SOS: Strength of Schedule (coming soon).
  • Tiebreakers in the App preceded by “BID” are for leagues that utilize a “best-in-division” method to select wildcard teams in multi-division leagues (e.g. MyFantasy, Fleaflicker).
  • FORCE: In multi-division leagues, this tiebreaker will be appended so that for each scenario calculated, if two or more teams would tie for a division spot where the winner of tiebreaker cannot yet be determined (usually because of points as a tiebreaker), the program will “split” the scenario to calculate what happens when each of those teams were to win the division.

Since points (and all-play) based tiebreakers are impossible to completely project who the winners would be in a tie situation before the season ends, they will be the last tiebreaker considered in calculations regardless of whether the league’s set-up has other tiebreakers following.

Latest known info of hosting sites and tiebreakers that is relevant to the App’s calculations:

  • MyFantasy: The default head-to-head tiebreaker only is applied if two teams are tied (H2HTWO), which is a flawed system. Some commissioners use custom sorting to employ other head-to-head tiebreaker methods. If your league does so, insure the head-to-head tiebreaker used in the App matches the league rules. MyFantasy employs “best-in-division” methods for selecting wildcard spots.
  • ESPN: In leagues that use a head-to-head tiebreaker, it is only applied if all teams played each other an equal amount of times (H2HEVEN). It is believed that ESPN employs a “standard” method for selecting wildcard spots. Reference https://support.espn.com/hc/en-us/articles/360036952471-Playoff-Seeding-How-Regular-Season-Standings-Tiebreakers-Work
  • Sleeper: Sleeper appears to only offer points for and points against as tiebreakers, although manual custom seeding is an option to commissioners. If your league employs custom seeding with a head-to-head tiebreaker, insure the head-to-head tiebreaker used in the App matches the league rules. It is believed Sleeper employs a “standard” method for selecting wildcard spots. Reference https://support.sleeper.com/en/articles/2203518-how-do-playoff-teams-get-determined
  • Fleaflicker: Fleaflicker’s head-to-head tiebreaker is a little different from the norm. In the event of a tie between 3 or more teams, the H2H tiebreaker is only employed if one team would win the H2H tiebreaker over every other tied team individually, or would lose the H2H tiebreaker against every other tied team individually. This method does not have an exact replica in the App. Using either H2HALL or H2HTWO will provide the closest match possible. All the other known Fleaflicker tiebreakers (division record, points, hardest schedule by points, and hardest schedule by record) have matches in the App. Fleaflicker states they employ a “best-in-division” method for selecting wildcard spots.
  • NFL Fantasy: NFL Fantasy’s head-to-head tiebreakers is matched by H2HALL in the App. All the other known NFL Fantasy tiebreakers (division record, points, points against) have matches in the App. It is not known if a “best-in-division” methodology is employed. Reference https://support.nfl.com/hc/en-us/articles/4989088211228-Standings-Seeding-Rankings
  • Yahoo: Yahoo does not use head-to-head as a tiebreaker. It appears division record and points for are predominantly used. It is not believed Yahoo employs a “best-in-division” method. Their methods for sorting hockey league standings do not have an exact match in the App. Reference https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN35744.html
  • Fantasy Premier League: FPL does not use head-to-head as a tiebreaker. It is a “league-points based league”. It appears the only tiebreaker used in standings sorting is points.

FAQS AND TMI

MEDIAN SCORING

As the use of Median Scoring (awarding teams an additional win for being one of the higher scoring teams for the week, and conversely a loss for others) is increasing in fantasy sport leagues, it is naturally desired to include such in the app’s calculations of the playoff race. The main obstacle, and it is a huge one, is the sheer number of scenarios that Median Scoring adds to the number that the app would need to go through. For example, using a regular 12 team league, with one week left, which makes it 6 remaining head-to-head games. Not including ties as a possibility, there are 32 possible scenarios possible for the week. If Median Scoring calculations are added, there are 924 different possibilities for which 6 teams in this 12 team league example would get the “Median win”, and those 924 would have to be calculated for each of the original 32 scenarios, turning that 32 number into 29,568 different possible outcomes for the week. Doable with one week left to calculate, not so doable any earlier in the season as the numbers grow exponentially.

YAHOO

The Yahoo API in which the App uses to access league data hosted by them was created somewhere around the stagecoach era (only a slight exaggeration) and has not been modernized. It provides data in a format completely different from every other hosting site accessed by the App, and this format is not very compatible with modern Android programming methods. Furthermore, Yahoo is the only league hosting site that completely privatizes all league data (hence the need to have users authorize the App to access, “read-only” by the way), which makes troubleshooting any user problems with Yahoo data import practically impossible as there is no way for the developer to pull up the applicable data to see where the trouble is. It is believed that all is in order and there “shouldn’t” be any issues, but please keep this in mind.

TIPS

The following may increase the enjoyment of using this App:

  • The “paths-to-clinch” report (Premium Level) readability may be improved when team names in the App are either abbreviations (e.g. CHI, if able depending on hosting site) or brief (e.g. Bears). Certainly it is understood this is not often the case with the creative names fantasy sports players come up with. The ability for users to edit team names in the App to shorten them for readability is being worked on.
  • Besides the obvious determining where teams stand in their division and playoff race, for many leagues the App can also be used for determining the “race” for top seed, a playoff bye, or avoiding last place punishment by adjusting the number of “Wildcard Spots” in the App as desired. League division and tiebreaker settings may limit the ability to accomplish some of these alternative calculations.

ODDS DISPLAY

Those that are really into numbers and analysis might notice a situation where the odds numbers displayed just don’t look “right”. Possible reasons include the very definition of what is “right” along with the complexity of the scenarios presented. For a simple example, say there is an 8 team league in its last week, thus 5 remaining games. Without tie games factored in, that is 16 possibilities (2 ^ 4), and one would reason that the odds display should show numbers that correspond to 1/16, 2/16, 3/16 (rounded to 6%. 12%, 18%) and so on to correspond to the number of these scenarios that result in any particular team clinching a spot. However there are at least two things that may cause the odds to be unexpectedly different. First, the App performs a “pre-check” to look for teams that are either so far ahead that they are definitely in or so far ahead that they are definitely eliminated before it begins the arduous calculation work. It does this in an attempt to eliminate games from the calculations that simply do not matter to anyone’s playoff chances, which is useful when there are many remaining games. Thus, in the above example, if there were two teams that are clearly already eliminated that are playing each other in the last week, that game would be excluded from the calculations, making it so there was only 3 relevant games (not the original 4). As such, the makes it only 8 possibilities that are computed versus the above 16, and the odds display would show numbers that correspond to 1/8, 2/8, 3/8 (rounded to 12%, 25%, 37%) and so on. Second, for leagues with divisions, any possibility in which two or more teams could end up being tied for the division in which it cannot be pre-determined who would win the tiebreaker (due to points related tiebreakers), the App has to “split” that scenario into multiple ones to look at what happens when any of those tied teams win the division and how it effects the wildcard race. Thus, in the above simple example that began with 16 possibilities which were then reduced to 8, if it is a multi-division league there could end up being really 20 different ways the season could end up going. Thus, the odds display would show numbers that correspond to 1/20, 2/20, 3/20 (5%, 10%, 15%) and so on. Clear as mud, right?

SUGGESTIONS

Those that have followed PlayoffComputer from its early days as an Excel Spreadsheet know this is a (sometimes foolish) passionate mission. Suggestions, questions, and discussions are welcome. Apps(at@)zelapeak.com.